Saturday, October 12, 2013

Slight September Slowing

The September market stats are out from RMLS, with no particular surprises.  What I see as seasonal slowing  is evident in lower pending sales; down 15.1% from August 2013, but still up well over September 2012.   Closed sales are also down,  17.7% from August 2013, but up, with the best September since 2006 (pre-recession).

Our market time got a tad longer in September; 72 days vs. 69 days for August 2013.  In the fall, we see houses that didn't sell in the busy time sitting on the market, pushing the days on market higher.

The median home price for the first nine months of this year up 15.0 over the same period in 2012 to $265,000.



And inventory; measured by how long, at the current rate of sales, it will take to sell all the houses on the market, has increased slightly from 3.1 months in August 2013 to 3.7 months in September 2013.  While the "good" houses (in good shape, priced right and prepped for sale) are still selling quickly, many with multiple offers, buyers do have a tad more houses from which to choose.   Remember, a balanced market; neither seller's nor buyer's market, is thought to be about 5 to 6 months of inventory.

Interest rates have actually come down slightly, and are bumping along between 4.5% and 4.8%.  The government shut down is slowing our market a bit.  FHA and VA loans in process seem to be doing fine, but new loans, and those needing IRS or SSA verifications are seeing delays.  USDA loans, in rural areas are at a standstill.  A prolonged shut down will indeed have a strong affect on the real estate industry as existing loans move through the pipeline and new loans are harder to come by.  Cash is REALLY king now, and makes up a good 25% or more of our market.

Investors, many of whom are cash buyers, always like the fall and see it as a time to scoop up deals as sellers get concerned with the impending year end slow down.  Anecdotally, I am seeing sellers negotiate more on home inspection issues to avoid putting their houses back on the market right now.  Government shutdown + failed sale = ?

Call or email me if you have questions about your own real estate situation.  leslievjones@gmail.com  503-312-8038.

Read the full report for the Portland area.

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