Friday, July 29, 2011

Prices up and foreclosures down!?

S&P Case/Shiller and RealtyTrac released some interesting stats this week. 

The S&P Case Shiller Indices showed a second consecutive month of price increases for their 10 and 20 City Composites.  16 of the 20 market areas watched showed some increase, month on month.  Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa showed decreases and Phoenix was unchanged.  Looking at annual numbers, Washington D.C. was the only area with a positive change and Minneapolis showed the worst decline at 11.7%.  As the spring and summer are usually busy real estate months, seasonal adjustments can decrease the impression of these housing gains.    Portland shows an increase from April to May of 1.2%, but an annual decrease of 9.1%  Though I don't see it in print, I remember hearing the NPR story on this data earlier in the week where the Case Shiller folks said something like, " Hey, seasonal adjustments or not, any increase is good".  I feel the same way.  The Report

RealtyTrac, tracks, among other things, notices for defaults , scheduled home auctions and home repossessions, all signs of impending foreclosure.  Their stats show that in the first two quarters, a majority (84%) of metropolitan areas saw a drop in their foreclosure rates as compared to 2010.  At first blush this is encouraging.  Industry insiders, like me :) attribute this less to the health of the economy and more to issues of unlawful or at least questionable foreclosure practices. 

Remember "robo signing"?  Where bank employees were supposedly approving legal paperwork without actually reviewing it?  That kerfuffle resulted in a slowdown of procedure and paperwork.  So in those instances, foreclosures are down because proper procedures are being followed.  Something to celebrate, I guess. 

Oregon is a non-judicial foreclosure state, which means, as long as proper procedures have been followed, lenders can foreclose without going through a court of law.  As long as proper procedures have been followed, there is the catch.  With the securitizing of mortgages, and the frequent resale of mortgages, lenders created MERS, the Mortgage Electronic Registration System.  This is a mechanism allowed the sale of mortgages, without recording those documents in the county in which the property is located. Thing is, a non-judicial foreclosure in Oregon is predicated on the recording of transfers of titles and liens.  There is at least one court case where a foreclosure was overturned due to this exact issue.  This MERS issue is slowing foreclosures down a bit too.

So it isn't that fewer houses are subject to foreclosure this year compared to last.  The situation is more that questionable practices surrounding foreclosures have mucked up the foreclosure machine.    Though in the spirit of the comment above regarding any market increases being a good thing, I suppose any slowing in foreclosures is a good thing also.

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