Preparing for the COVID-19 winter

Dave Davies (Kinks) has a song, Cold Winter, that starts; “I’ve seen you, cold winter, I know you, cold winter.  You showed me no mercy”.

 

Since we haven’t gotten COVID-19 under control, this winter could be a hard one.  We’ve enjoyed socializing outside, maybe gone camping, or even enjoyed a meal at an outdoor restaurant.  We’ve had lots of fresh air, with windows and doors open.  We expanded our living space to yards, porches, parks and plazas. 

 

As the weather changes, we’ll start losing some of those opportunities. Oh yes, the outdoors will be there, but perhaps less hospitable than this summer. 

 

Some of the things I’m thinking about for winter:

 

1)    Make sure you have basic medical supplies on hand; thermometer (and covers if you need them).  If you have asthma or like me, situational asthma, be sure you have inhalers on hand. Remember Ibuprofen is counter-indicated with COVID, so be sure you have some aspirin or Acetaminophen on hand.  Consider a pulse-oximeter for reading oxygen levels in the blood (that’s one of COVID’s sneaky things, lowering blood oxygen levels even if you don’t feel lightheaded).  You can pick up a pulse oximeter for around $35 or so.  Get your flu shot.

2)    Think about how you’ll get your social interaction needs met.  Will you be comfortable going into restaurants or someone’s home?  Do you have a covered outdoor area, or one that could be covered?  Or perhaps buy a canopy big enough to accommodate social distancing to leave set up in the yard?  If you’ll have people over, round up blankets and throws; keep some clean, in a tub or tote, to keep your guests warm.  If you don’t have a yard or covered area, identify restaurants that do (along with heaters) so you have that list ready. Also, compile a list of favorite, nearby hikes and walks.  A bit of walking in Portland’s drizzle isn’t so bad, and you’ll be more likely to go if you have ideas of where to go. 

3)    We may be spending extra time inside, with our “pod”.   Reading, streaming, singing, puzzles and crafts could be your savior.  Make sure you have a valid library card (Multnomah County is accommodating pick up for hold/ordered books), exchange puzzles with friends, organize your craft supplies (trade with friends?).  If you stream content, look at your sources.  Is there one you can let go, or do you regularly use them all? Consider switching your streaming platforms to give you access to new content.

4)    Take advantage of every nice day between now and winter.  Was there something you wanted to do this summer, but haven’t?  Now’s the time. Go berry picking, take a hike, sit in the sun, fit in a last camping trip, walk by the river.

Who knows?  Maybe all this out and about is what has kept the virus going.  Maybe several months of hunkering down will do the trick?  Wear your mask, be vigilant about distancing, don’t congregate indoors and wash your hands.

Have I missed something?  Do you have any winter preparation ideas to share?

Portland's Residential Infill Project

After five years of collaboration and wrangling, the City of Portland, last week, adopted the Residential Infill Project . This is the largest overhaul of the City's planning and building codes...ever.  It is also groundbreaking nationally.  From an article published by the City of Portland, "Explained Sightline Institute’s Senior Researcher Michael Andersen, "This is the most progressive reform to low-density urban zoning in American history. Portland is going above and beyond Oregon's mandate for re-legalizing middle housing. Nonprofits will now be able to add below-market housing to any neighborhood. Middle-income Portlanders will be able to afford newly built, energy-efficient homes in walkable areas essentially by teaming up with each other to split the land costs.”"

Basically, RIP opens up the large majority of lots in the city to more, smaller units; cottages, ADU's, duplexes triplexes etc.  Projects that build in affordable housing can build more units.  It also restricts the above ground size of single family homes, from 6500 down to 2500.  

Before the passage of RIP, larger lots with multi-family zoning, were sought after by developers to build apartments and condominiums.  With most every lot being able to accommodate more units, it will be interesting to see what happens to land prices.  Many developers say construction and system development costs are fixed, leaving profit and land cost as the variables.  With smaller houses and ADA requirements, developers say they'll need to pay less for the land (cuz taking less profit isn't an option they'll choose).  

Neighborhoods and preservationists worry there will be a flood of projects in Portland's historic neighborhoods, making older homes vulnerable to demolition.  While I've not found details, the synopsis on Portland's website says that the RIP discourages demolitions and provides bonuses for the preservation of older homes.

RIP followed pretty closely behind Oregon's HB2001 which legalized development of duplexes on residential land currently zoned for single-family housing in all communities with a population of 10,000 or more.  Many worried this would effectively "ban" single family housing.  There is still plenty of single family housing being built, so this worry may have been unfounded. 

Restricting the size of new single family homes to 2500 (above ground) may well increase the value of larger homes built recently.  That is, if buyers want new(er) homes, bigger than 2500 sq ft, they may well pay a premium.

I'm excited to see more cottage developments in Portland,  There have been a few of late, offering stand alone small houses, on commonly owned property; condominium ownership, but single family.  These projects have been well received.

I expect we'll also see more folks build on their own existing lots; like an ADU, but perhaps a duplex.  Financing additional units on an owner occupied lot has always been tricky as there really isn't a bank product for that purpose.  Most owners use an equity loan on their existing home to build the new unit(s). This restricts such projects to those who have both enough equity in their home and can qualify (based on their income) for the increased payment without considering the potential income from the new unit.  Ironic that the owners who could really use the extra income from another unit on their property are exactly the folks who can't afford/qualify to do so.  I hope we'll see some new loan products.

The specific code for RIP is still in process, with implementation expected in 2021. I'm hoping to get further educated on this in the future.  For now, I probably can't answer your questions about RIP, but would be glad to chat about 

Portland's real estate stats for July.

Holy cow!  Its busy out there.  

Our multiple listing service released the report for July.  Most notable to me was inventory, or the lack of it. 

Inventory in Months is calculated by dividing the Active Residential Listings at the end of the month in question by the number of closed sales for that month. This includes proposed and under construction homes.  July showed 1.2 months of inventory...including proposed and under construction homes.  We haven't been that low since December of 2015 (and low inventory in December is less about a busy market and more about a slow market, with folks not selling during the holidays).

These two charts give the best visual of how things are going. This chart shows active listings as compared to the past two years. 2020 looked to be off to a good start, and then the COVID decline.

This chart shows pending sales as compared to the last two years. The COVID drop is pretty clear, followed by a pretty steep spike.

So, yeah, lots of buyers buying and fewer sellers selling.  We're back in multiple offers, with many selling well over list price.  A buyer client of mine recently offered $508,000 on a $475,000 house, and was offered second back up position.  Meaning, there is an accepted offer, and a party in back up position, and then my client.  This is par for the course, with many buyers getting frustrated and fatigued.

Other stats of note; the year to date median sale price is $426,500, up 4.5% year to date over the same period last year.  Our market time in July was short at 42 days, though North Portland has the shortest market time the metro area at 29 days.  

Record low interest rates are fueling some of this activity.  We are seeing some COVID inspired moves; more space, closer to family and away from dense urban east coast cities.  

If you are thinking of making a real estate move, get in touch,  I'd be glad to chat.  leslievjones@gmail.com. 503-312-8038