Into the dark in search of the light!

 Bucket list?  Not quite, as I don't really believe in those.  But seeing the Northern Lights had long been an aspiration.  Though it would be fabulous to see them spontaneously, in my 62+ years on earth, that had not yet happened.  I don't regularly hang out late at night, in the far northern hemisphere in winter.  Yes, occasionally forecasters will predict them visible in Oregon, and we have driven late into the night, east, in search of darkness for light...to no avail.

My brother-in-law spent his career working with the tour and travel industry in the NW and suggested a few places to which one must travel in search of the northern lights.  We considered both Chena Hotsprings Resort and Borealis Basecamp, both in Alaska.

Chena Hotsprings Resort drew us as there appeared to be more to do while waiting to see the northern lights and because they had availability in 2022.  We were hoping to schedule in that suspended time between Christmas and New Year's.  

We were able to schedule at Chena, pretty much exactly when we wanted. We booked a three night package, and then added a night. Traveling all the way up there, it seemed wise to add a night to increase our chances of seeing "the lights." The package included meals (generous options) and non-alcoholic beverages, aurora tour, dog sledding, hot springs, kennel tour. We added in massages, also recommend that.  Chena Hotsprings has a shuttle that picks up from the Fairbanks Airport and several area hotels. The drive is a bit over an hour, but with various pick up stops, can take up to two hours.

The setting is stunning, in a sweet valley, so nice mountain views.  It is a very easy and enjoyable place to spend a few days. 

We stayed in the Moose Lodge. Moose Lodge is the newest,and from what I understand best appointed of the accommodations;  decent hotel rooms, close to the restaurant/bar, pool etc.  The rooms have radiant floor heat. It took us a day or so to get the setting right. First night was like sleeping in a sauna. We were most comfortable with it set on 3.25, 5. Being the highest. No worries about being cold!

Our package included three meals a day. The restaurant is busy and doesn’t take reservations, so be patient, and build in enough time. Getting cranky won’t help. With just two of us, we were usually seated within 20 minutes, though sometimes service was slow. All the staff were working incredibly hard and efficiently. If you’re on the package, remember to tip on your entire meal cost.  Food was generally good. They grow lettuce, tomatoes and other vegetables year round in their hydroponic greenhouses (you can get a brief tour). I enjoyed the salmon dinner most, Don liked the curry. And breakfast. I love a good breakfast.

 

The resort is quiet in the mornings, but gets crowded with day trippers in the afternoon and into the night. We really enjoyed an early breakfast (we’re early risers) at 7:00, and then spending time in the hot springs before it gets crowded. The package we had gave us free use of the hotsprings. I’m not sure if all guests get that, or only those on packages. With the long nights, we really loved the springs in the dark morning, and watching dawn break. There is a bit of a chilly walk from the locker rooms to the outdoor hot springs pool. They don’t allow shoes in the locker rooms.  Some folks had water shoes or slippers, we survived without. The pool itself has a gravel (pea gravel, so easy on the feet) floor.  Lockers are available for 50 cents a use. 

Then, an afternoon activity…massage, dog sledding, geo-thermal energy tour, kennel tour.  We didn’t tour the ice museum, nor partake in ice fishing.   Our massages were in this historic cabin, dating back over a century to the early days the report (photo taken around 3:00 pm in the afternoon).

 

As we very much enjoy dogs, we spent a fair amount of time with the dogs. They get sooo excited at the prospect of pulling a sled.The folks at the "dog yard" were friendly and accommodating. Plenty of dog pets and snuggles, lots of interesting information and of course, sledding!

We enjoyed walks around the resort and on a few of the closer trails. Our Yaktrax served us well, though we did shorter walks to meals and such without. They ask you don’t wear them inside, though the folks at the dog yard were fine with them inside. 

The Aurora Tours are your best viewing opportunity. They leave nightly at 9:30 and 10:30 pm, with a projected duration of five hours. As clear skies are best for viewing, consider the weather report when booking your "tour'. Groups are driven, via fancy snow-cat, to the top of Charlie Dome, which offers a 360 degree view. The resort has a few large yurts, heated and equipped with warm beverages. Wear all your warm clothes, as one the lights are visible, you won't want to miss them!  

Chena Hotsprings Resort is off the grid. Until the early 2000's, the resort was run on diesel generators.  Owner Bernie Karl a bit of an inventor in his own right, sought to harness the energy of the hot springs. As the springs water is cooler than that required to power traditional steam engines, a heat exchanger system was developed, leading the world in low-tempertaure geo-thermal power.  In addition to creating electricity, the hotsprings heat the accommodations through hot water floor heat.  

Power and hot water from the springs also fuel the various on-site greenhouses, with fresh vegetables grown year round.  A variety of hydroponic gardening methods are used.

We had a great time on this trip and are so thankful we were able to see the northern lights.  Even without seeing 'the lights" this would have been a wonderful trip. I highly advise setting expectation such that your excursion can be a success, even if the northern lights don't make an appearance.

That Year End Real Estate Report

What I said last year: It looks as though interest rates are set to creep up in 2022 (though I’ve been saying that for years). We’ll continue to see housing prices increase; both rental and purchase.  With eviction moratoria sunsetting, we may see some increases in rents as properties turn over. We’ll also see the median purchase price increase, though not as quickly as in 2021.  Outdoor living spaces will continue to be popular as COVID sticks around. The popularity of suburbs and ex-urbs will continue, along with vacation homes. Portland’s inner city will get cleaned up a bit. We’ll start to see some slight progress in homelessness as both the designated villages and new affordable housing projects come on board. 

 

How’d I do? I wasn’t far off, though interest rates more than “crept up”. They jettisoned up past 5% and got as high as 7%. This indeed slowed the market a bit.  Housing prices increased rapidly in the first part of the year, offset by slowing in the second half. The median year to date price increase for 2021 was 8.1%. Outdoor living spaces are still popular, as are the suburbs. Some of the boom towns in the pandemic have seen some marked slowing (Boise, ID for example). Portland’s inner city is getting cleaned up a bit, and there is renewed energy and funding designated to address the huge homelessness population.  

 

Hot Spots (and not spots): Suburbs, ex-urbs and recreational property hot.  Downtown, high rise condos not so hot. If you’ve been wanting a pied-a-terre in town, now is a good time to buy. 

 

Moving and such:  Indeed, we moved our Portland Metro office to the Hanna Building (You might know it as the Jantzen Building, designed by noted architect, Richard Sundeleaf.)  Our new address is 541 NE 20th Ave, Suite 210, Portland, OR 97232.   That was a huge undertaking. Then, in early fall, we consolidated our Sellwood and Portland Metro offices; more moving activities, but we’d gotten good at it. 

 

Art show!  We were thrilled to bring back our charity art show, and enjoyed having it in our new space. With fewer walls, displaying the art was a challenge, but one we solved. Self Enhancement Inc was the beneficiary, and we were glad to raise over $8000 for them.  Thanks to those of you who joined us, and especially to those of you who bought art.

 

 

My 2023 predictions:

Our post-holiday pick up will come later than sooner, but by mid-February it will be an active market. Sellers will still have a bit of an advantage in the market due to low inventory. Buyers will have a tad more power than in past years, allowing them time to contemplate a purchase, inspections on their purchase and even some negotiating room on repairs. Prices on building materials will ease a bit.  Interest rates will settle somewhere between 5% and 6% - the stability of which will bring more buyers back into the market. I expect we’ll continue to see an increase in the median sale price, but not at the astronomical rates of a few years ago. 

 

Interest Rate affects: Higher interest rates affect the real estate market in a variety of ways. Obvious, is making the same house cost more when financed at a higher interest rate. Another factor is making existing homeowners less interested in moving. That is, if your current home has a 3% interest rate (the artificially low rates of the past several years means most financed homes were either bought with, or refinanced into a low rate), even selling and buying a home of the same value would have a marked increase in monthly cost (due to higher rates). Add in that values have increased rapidly in the past years, buying the same home would cost more due to both higher rates and the increase in real estate values. That disincentive to move will continue to limit the number of available homes for sale. 

 

Housing Providers: Though the State of Oregon allows a rent increase of up to 14.6%, market forces will keep rents from going up that such. Tenants are valuing more space (work from home is here to stay, even if only part time), cooling and pets. Though most pandemic protections for tenants have sunseted, a few remain in place especially around tenant screening. Please be sure to be in compliance.

 

I remain honored to help folks with some of the biggest decisions of their lives and humbled by the trust placed in me.  My business is based on referrals.  I will always take good care of anyone you send my way.  Be it selling, buying or just curious, I am always here to help.

Portland housing affordability and interest rates.

 Yes, interest rates for residential mortgages are nudging up.  We're seeing rates on FHA, conventional and  jumbo loans above three percent.  Don't get me wrong, a rate of 3.25% or so, is a GREAT rate.  Just not if all your friends got rates at 2.65%.  Most home owners either got a good rate when they bought, or refinanced during these several years of low rates, leaving rate increases to effect folks currently or planning on buying.  Here's a chart showing how rising interest rates can effect monthly payments, or buying power. 

As interest rates go up, buyers can afford less of a house payment.  This shrinks the number of buyers who can afford any particular house, thus decreasing competition on any given listing.  For the past few months, sellers have seen less competition on their listings. 

Due to be updated any day now, the quarterly affordability index was already on the move in June.  Affordability is calculated according to a formula from the National Association of REALTORS®. The formula assumes that the buyer has a 20% down payment and a 30 year fixed rate determined by Freddie Mac. In the month of June 2021, a family earning the median income ($96,909 in 2021, per HUD) can afford 103% of a monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home ($521,000 in June).  

You can see back in the Great Recession, 2007, affordability was quite low, with households not able to afford even 85% of the monthly mortgage. Then, coming out of the recession, in 2011-2012, affordability peaked.  

We do expect to see some wage growth, which may increase affordability.  Though wage growth will need to outpace the rise in interest rates and prices, to have any effect on affordability.  Stay tuned as I'll post the updated affordability index when it is released. 

If you have questions about the real estate market, especially your particular situation, call, text or email.  leslievjones@gmail.com 503-312-8038  

Some cool tools

There are a variety of ways to look at real estate values, and changing real estate markets. 

The general public uses Zillow a lot for this purpose.  Zillow is about big data, and uses a variety of data feeds to arrive at a value.  I track what Zillow says as compared to actual sale prices of transactions in which I am involved.  Sometimes Zillow is spot on, and some times Zillow is in left field. 

Realtors have a similar tool which provides an automated home valuation.  The system, allows us to customize the valuation by adding information specific to the subject property. We also use our Multiple Listing Service and a variety of programs to arrive at home values.

As many real estate websites do, mine has a pricing calculator .  Click the "sell" tab and enter your address.  It will give you both the Zillow and SmartZip value estimations. 

In a quickly changing market, pricing is tricky.  No doubt.

The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) tool helps get at value a different way.  It looks at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA's),  the quarter in which the property was purchased and quarter in which one is looking for a value.  It projects what a given house purchased at a point in time would be worth if it appreciated at the average appreciation rate of all homes in the area.  This isn't the end all, be all of pricing.  But I do find it to be a good data point in a pricing strategy.  

Play around with the FHFA Home Pricing Calculator.   What do you think? Does it seem to reflect reality?

The Federal Housing Finance Agency website has a variety of other tools and data.  I also like the Four Quarter Appreciation Map. Holy Cow, look at Austin, TX with 35.1% appreciation over the previous 4 quarters,  and Boise, ID at 41.1%.  Makes the Portland metro area's 18.3% four quarter appreciation look downright reasonable!

If you want a more accurate value estimation, give me a call, text or email. I'd be glad to come by and work up a market analysis. leslievjones@gmail.com  503-312-8038   

Street of (differing) Dreams

I had the occasion to visit the 2021 NW Natural Gas Street of Dreams a few weeks ago(the 2020 Street of Dreams was cancelled due to COVID).  I don't always go, but our company was a sponsor and we held an agent appreciation event there.  This year's show was in Happy Valley. It featured three homes at the main site, a container home and sleeping pod, and more affordable homes at a second site.

The Street of Dreams showcases trends in floor plans, features and interior design in the housing industry. The houses are usually quite large; largest this year was 7338 sq ft. Zion  (Heritage Crest 3).  I was drawn to the 3834 sq ft Ohana (Heritage Crest 2).  Both were built by Red Hills Construction.  Hygge, Heritage Crest 1, was built by Anlon Custom Homes.

As you might imagine all the homes had very generous outdoor "rooms" and spaces for outdoor entertaining (a nod to COVID?).  I'm always on the look out for the quirky feature.  This year's: jets to dry the shower after use.  I suppose this makes cleaning easier.  Back in the 1976 (before my time in real estate) they featured...built-in microwaves.  Cutting edge.

I was especially interested in the container home and sleeping pods. The Home Builders Foundation partnered with MODS PDX and Base Design Architecture on this project, showcasing affordable and energy efficient design options for addressing houselessness.  These particular units will be donated to one of the Home Builders Foundations' affiliate affordable housing partners. It would sure be great to see these designs in housing solutions around the metro area.

The Street of Dreams predecessor was the Parade of Homes, which started in 1937 and featured homes on N Michigan in Portland's Piedmont neighborhood.

Photo courtesy of the Portland Historical Society

Coincidentally, one of these homes is currently on the market with a colleague.  6106 N Michigan is a 2613 sq ft, 5 bedroom, 2 bath home , listed for $750,000. The house features original period details, hardwood floors, coved ceilings, gas fireplace insert, leaded glass windows. Kitchen w/butcher block counters & nook. Like the current Street of Dreams houses, this house also has a covered outdoor "room".

Today is the last day of the 2021 NW Natural Gas Street of Dreams. Online tickets may be in short supply.  Keep an eye out for the container home and sleeping pods to make an appearance. If y0u're waning more information on 6106 N Michigan, contact me, or the listing agent, Jamie Orr at jamieorr@remax.net.

What Seasonal Slowing Looks Like

 The Portland real estate market has been crazy for the past year. After the initial COVID shutdown, it roared back with a vengeance. There was no normal, seasonal slow down in the summer, and we sped through civil unrest, wildfires and smoke, the winter holidays, an unconventional  election, assault on the capitol, snow, ice and widespread power outages.

Our active real estate market has had many components; high demand, low supply and low interest rates.  This resulted in very short market times, multiple offers well over list price (when the list price was priced to recent comparable sales), as-is sales, cash sales, buyers paying the difference between the high sale price and an appraisal at market value, sellers getting up to 60 days possession of their house after closing (at no cost), buyers releasing earnest money to sellers in advance of closing and so on. 

We still have much of that going on.  But we are seeing a sliver of what I think is seasonal slowing.  This is not a "crash". It's an easing in the rate of price increases. It's fewer multiple offers, and not as high over list price. We see some properties stay on the market for a few weeks.  Some buyers are getting the opportunity for inspections.  Heck, some are even getting concessions from sellers in inspection negotiations.  

Real estate agents are breathing a sigh of relief as the pressure cooker we've been in lets off a bit of steam.  Unless of course,  there is a seller expecting the conditions of a few months ago, which may or may not occur for their particular property.  

With a slight shift, comes the education piece (like this 😊). Buyers who tired of getting beat up and out, may want to come back in the market about now.  Sellers afraid to sell their home as they might not be able to find a new home, might be able to get an offer accepted contingent on the sale of their current home.  And sellers expecting the highest and craziest competition for their listing, may need to revisit those expectations.

Our multiple listing service releases monthly statistics around the 10th of the month. So in July, we'll see the June numbers.  In advance of that, I look at the number of properties coming on the market as compared to the number going under contract (absorption). I look at the market time for properties currently on the market as compared to the market time for those under contract, or recently sold.  These are a few of the ways we can get sense of what is happening in the short term.

We are, after all, cramming two summers into one.  Some have backlogs of unused vacation from 2020, and face a "use it or lose it" policy. Many are taking this opportunity to see family they've missed in the past year +.  Family reunions, weddings and other get togethers are back on the table. No wonder things aren't as frenzied.

If you've got questions about your particular neighborhood, house or situation, get in touch. I love talking about real estate.

Remember that home inspection?

Many of you, who own your own homes, most likely had a home inspection done at the time of your purchase. Quite possibly, information from the inspection was used to negotiate seller repairs or seller credits.  And then, you filed it away somewhere, or not. 

That inspection had all sorts of valuable information; how many amps are in your electric panel, how old is that hot water heater?  There are also home maintenance tips, suggestions of conditions to keep your eye on, and often repair/scope of work suggestions.

I know, I know.  Life gets so busy when you buy a house.  Once the dust settles from your move, digging up that inspection just isn't a priority.

Until...you're getting ready to sell, and your real estate agent asks if you tended to those inspection items.  You might even have gotten a seller credit for a repair you planned to handle once you owned the house.  And quite possibly,  didn't use that money for the intended repair.  You are not alone

Don is currently doing some repair work to the south side of our house. That side is exposed to lots of sun and rain, with not much eave over hang for protection.  Caulking around the window trim perhaps wasn't kept up as well as it might have been 😬. We're lucky to have avoided moisture intrusion into the walls, due to decent flashing, making this job a bit easier. 

Home repair issues rarely fix themselves, or improve with age.  As the saying goes, prevention is the best medicine. 

For many of us, our home is our biggest financial asset, plus...it's home.  Give it a bit of love. Dig out that old inspection, or, if I assisted you in your purchase, get in touch.  I probably have it in my file somewhere.   If you need referrals for tradespeople, I'm glad to send a few along.  Contractors are busy these days and construction materials are crazy expensive, so stand forewarned.