How's the Market?

RMLS just released their stats for March 2012, and I like what I see.  We continue to see an increase in both pending and closed sales in relation both to the previous month and the same month a year ago.  Prices are bumping along with nominal increases or decreases depending on exactly where one is looking.

For the Portland metro area, there were 12.8% more accepted offers in March of 2012 than in March 2011, and 7.7% more than February 2012.  And in closed sales, there were 4.9% more than March 2011 and 34.2% more than in February 2012.  Our listing inventory, the number of houses on the market, is LOW. It would take only five months to sell the active listings at our current rate of sale.  This is the lowest inventory since June 2007.

As for pricing, it is useful to look at the most recent quarter, compared with the same quarter of 2011.  The average sales price declined less than one half percent to $251,700, and the median price decreased 1.4%  compared to the first quarter of 2011, to a median price of $212,000.  Commiserate with declining inventory, our average market time has fallen from 165 days in the first quarter of 2011 to 135 days in the first quarter of 2012.

In our office, we have seen a HUGE increase in business.  One of our agents has had three new listings all get pending sales in their first three days on the market.  Holy Cow!  This kind of speed and pressure aren't always my favorite.  I like an active market, but buyers often feel pressed to make quick buying decisions or risk losing out.  If you're curious what your home might be worth, get in touch as I'd be more than glad to update your market analysis.

The Portland area RMLS market report.

Have you seen Car2go?

I'm seeing those cute little smart cars all over town...on the eastside, that is.  Car2go has made quite an entrance considering they just started here YESTERDAY!  While this looks like competition for zipcar, the business model is a bit different.  Car2go is a membership organization that charges based on usage and fees.  But...you pick up and leave cars where you like, within the service area (inner eastside and a bit of the westside).  No need to leave it in a designated spot or return it to where you found it.  Car2go's website says you simply leave it in a legal parking spot.

There is a $35 registration fee, and the basic cost is 35 cents a mile, with a maximum of $65.99 per day.  This fee includes gas, parking, gps, maintenance and cleaning.  The nice thing is no designated return times, you just get in and drive off.  This sounds great, until I've been planning on using car2go and can't find a car.  Not to worry, their mapping function shows where cars are currently located.   There is also a "stopover" function to prevent someone else from getting in and driving off if you are still using the car.

I think this is kind of cool, though I wonder how many different versions of car sharing Portland can support.  And I find it interesting that we now have at least two care sharing options and no major bike sharing options.  hmm.

Tidbits to wrap up the week

The Oregonian ran several articles that caught my eye in the last few days.

A bit of E-News, Environmental, that is. You may have seen the one about high radon levels at Mahonia Hall, the Governor's residence.  I've been nagging about radon for awhile, and Mahonia Hall shows us that even cool old fancy buildings have it.  The folks at Eco-Tech did the testing there.  They are also the folks with Terra, the oil sniffing dog from a previous blog.  Radon is measured by picocuries per liter of air, with the EPA calling for "action" or remediation for any measurement over 4 picocuries per litre of air.  Mahonia Hall measured 6.2 in the billiard room (sounds like we're playing a game of Clue) and 4.8 in a basement storage room.  The short term monitor was used, so I believe next up is the longer, 90 day, test.  Our home test came in at 2.9.


Also in the news this week was the huge solar project Ikea has installed out at their store by the airport.  The project is said to include 2072 solar panels providing an estimated 568,900 kilowatt hours of power per year.  Wow.  In cloudy Oregon.  This will have the effect of reducing approximately 432 tons of carbon dioxide emissions- the equivalent of the exhaust of 77 cars.  Thanks IKEA!

And then a bit of editorializing on the real estate market and such.  The Case-Schiller report was released this week for January 2012, showing declining housing prices in Portland.  This index lags our local RMLS statistics by one month.  And in a changing market one month matters.  Look for Case-Schiller to catch up and show an improving market next month.

 And, it looks as though the Oregon Supreme Court may well hear a case regarding MERS and its relationship to Oregon's non-judicial foreclosure.  In Oregon, lenders can foreclose through an administrative rather than through a court process.  In part, this process is in place as Oregon statutes also require that changes to who owns what loan be recorded in the state, giving a clearer picture of who might actually have a right to foreclose.  MERS is the electronic registration system for mortgages,  that avoided the fees and "hassle" or recording.  There have been a few court cases with disparate rulings, so a Supreme Court opinion would be welcome.  Meanwhile, look for our courts to be crowded by lenders choosing judicial foreclosure to be sure their foreclosures stick.

And lastly, the blue jays have descended on the yard this morning.

"Good Liberals" and their Prejudice"

As many of you know, I am a devoted animal advocate and am on the board of directors of a small dog rescue group here in the Portland area (My Way Home Dog Rescue).  I just got off  the phone from talking with a potential adoptor calling about one of our dogs. Great lady, very grounded, realistic and devoted.  But...she was concerned the shepherd mutt she was calling about not have any pit bull in the mix.  In her words, " I realize I have a prejudice against these dogs.  I am a good liberal, but can't have anything to do with a pitbull".  I admire this gal for seeing her issue as a prejudice, but wish it weren't so.

 Merriam-Webster dictionary defines prejudice as among other things "2a(1):preconceived judgment or opinion (2): an adverse opinion or leaning formed without just grounds or before sufficient knowledge b: an instance of such judgement or opinion c: an irrational attitude of hostility directed against an individual, a group, a race or their supposed characteristics".

Unfortunately, just as we prejudge people with "an irrational attitude of hostility directed against an individual, a group, a race or their supposed characteristics", ask Trayvon Martin's family, many of us do the same with pit bulls.  Just as our society, or at least some of us, have worked to abandon racial and class prejudice, and see ourselves as open minded, I challenge you to do the same with regard to pit bulls.  No, I am NOT comparing dogs to people, and NO, I am in no way acquainting Trayvon Martin to a dog.  I'm pointing out how disingenuous we are to abhor prejudice against people and think nothing of it with regard to dogs.  Dogs who, by the way, aren't prejudiced at all.


Here is a chance to open your mind.  The Hollywood Theater, this weekend, is showing the breakout movie, Beyond the Myth; a movie about the dog breeds commonly referred to as Pit Bulls.  The movie looks at the people who love these dogs, the breed specific legislation several cities and state have enacted, and the myths about these dogs.  Sunday April 1st, starting at 5:00 pm.  Click here to purchase tickets.  Singer/songwriter John Shipe will also perform.  Below is the video of his song, Pit Bull Blues, a fav of mine. Hope to see you there.

Between Seattle and Austin...

Recent  Data On an Old Question
Trulia just released their Winter 2012 Rent vs. Buy study looking at 100 metro areas and considering their rent vs. buy ratio.  If you aren't famliar with Trulia, their website says,

"Trulia is an all-in-one real estate site that gives you the local scoop about homes for sale, apartments for rent, neighborhood insights, and real estate markets and trends to help you figure out exactly what, where, and when to buy, sell, or rent."

Trulia, similar to Zillow, has access to a bunch or real estate data and does some pretty interesting things with that data.

In looking at renting vs. buying, they considered asking prices for both rental and for sale properties for December 1,  2011 to February 29, 2012.  It is nice to have pretty recent numbers, as often real estate statistics can lag by several months, which in a changing market, matters.  Yes, we are in a changing market.  There is an inherent assumption here, that seasonal pressures on prices, rent and purchase, are similar; an assumption with which I agree.

Trulia's interpretation of the index says anything under 15 is a market in which buying is better than renting.  From 15 to 20, the question hinges on tax deductions, local programs and incentives and other indicators.  Anything over 20 is a market in which renting is considered better than buying.

Only two major markets in the United States showed indicators above 15; San Francisco and Honolulu.  Some niche markets in New York city eke above 20, but not the city over all.

Portland, which the report calls Portland, OR WA, ranked # 82 with a factor of 11. Seattle is just above us at #81, and our somewhat sister city of Austin, TX is at #83.  It seems we are in good company.  As one might expect, Detroit, MI ranked #1 as the city where buying is a better idea than renting.  hmm.

A few other housing thoughts.
The Oregonian reported today that 30 year fixed rate loans snuck above 4%. And a reminder for buyer's using FHA insured loans, in a well advised effort to increased their reserves, the  monthly mortgage insurance premium from 1% to 1.75% for loans originated after April 1st.  Read more about that here.  This change is estimated to cost the average buyer about $5 more per month, which translates to approximately $1000 of home buying power.

Read Trulia's report here.

Don't Throw That Away!

No, this is not a blog about Tim Tebow, though it could be.  This is a blog about restricting what goes in to our landfill as one way to increase our recycling rates.  The State of Vermont, sometimes a kindred spirit to Oregon, is considering restricting recyclable materials from being dumped in their landfill.  Should Vermont HB 485 pass, plastic and glass containers, cardboard and paper would be prohibited from Vermont landfills starting in 2015, with yard debris following suit in 2016.  The idea being, obviously, this would help increase the recycling of these goods.

Oregon, like Vermont, currently prohibits the dumping of used oil, tires, batteries and e-waste.  Oregon also prohibits vehicles and large industrial or home appliances, Vermont doesn't allow white goods and paint.  Of course, Oregon has the premier paint recycling program in the country.

Lessening our waste stream takes a variety of approaches.   As we know, Portland has tried by reducing our garbage pick up to twice monthly, while increasing yard debris pick ups to weekly and including kitchen compost in the yard debris.  This effort puts much of the burden squarely on the shoulders of individual households.  And while Vermont's approach makes garbage haulers responsible, proper sorting and disposal is still up to individuals.

I know there are lots of studies on what motivates us to take the time to recycle.  What gives you that extra umph to take your plastics to Far West Fiber or find the right place for those styrofoam peanuts?

My Radon Test Results!

We had placed a 90 day radon test in our house, well about four months ago.  In my work I see many houses with high results on radon tests.  The E.P.A estimates one in fifteen homes have elevated radon levels.  As I have spent a few years encouraging my clients to test for radon, it really was our turn.

The test is done with a small "canister", about an inch high and two inches across, best placed away from windows and doors, and heat registers.  We put ours on the buffet in the dining room.  I'm not sure Don ever really saw it.  Being an over achiever, I let the canister sit there  a bit beyond the 90 day minimum, and then sent it in using the handy envelope provided with the test.  We got our test from Eco-Tech. I believe you can order them by phone.  The actual test was from Accustar Labs, and it looks as though you can order direct from them.

 Conveniently,  I got the results in by e-mail.  Our radon level tested at 1.9 picoCuries per liter of air.  The World Health Organization suggests an action level of 2.7 picoCuries per liter of air.  The Environmental Protection Agency considers anything above 4 picoCuries per liter of air to be actionable.  I am very glad we came in below both those levels.  In Portland Area real estate transactions we see people abiding by the EPA level of 4 pico Curies per liter of air, with radon abatement usually being the responsibility of the seller.

In the coming weeks I'll talk address the questions, " what is so bad about radon anyway?"  and  "what do you do about high radon levels?"  If you'd like more information sooner, get in touch.  503-312-8038, leslievjones@gmail.com.