Government Camp; summer version

Many of us think of Government Camp, and the surroundings as a winter playground.  Or a place to stop through on your way to or from camping.

We're just back from a lovely few summer days playing in and around Government Camp.

We stayed at the lovely Grand Lodges at Collins Lake.  While in Government Camp, the property is slightly west of the hubhub; all the conveniences a short walk away, but we were in a welcome quieter spot.  All but the top floor units are spacious, 1800+ sq ft, one level units, with three bedrooms and two roomy bathrooms (the top floor units also have a 300+ sq ft loft, and gorgeous soaring ceiling in the living and dining areas).  There is a fab kitchen, large dining area and big sitting area with fireplace.  There is a deck across back. overlooking sweet, little Collins Lake.  The property has covered, secure parking, elevator, pool house with pool, sauna and hot tub.  Oh, and there is electric vehicle charging just across the way at Ski Bowl.  We used the CHAdeMO, fast charger for $7.50 a session; no waiting, no issues.

We were six; three couples, and were quite comfortable in the space.  The kitchen was easy to cook in; and nicely connected to the rest of the unit, so the cook didn't feel left out.  Thankful for the well stocked kitchen, we didn't want for a particular utensil or specific pot.

Our first day, there was indeed a run to the Huckleberry Inn for baked goods, that may or may not have occurred on subsequent days. And then we headed up to Timberline Lodge, for  a hike.  Half our party had not been to the Lodge before, always a treat to be with first timers.

Our hike was to the Zigzag Canyon Overlook, really just a part of the Mt. Hood Loop trail.  As with most hikes from destination resports (Crater Lake felt much the same way) the trail is quite crowded to begin with, and thins out quickly.  It is a 4.4 mile loop, of mostly easy hiking.  There is a fair decent to the overlook, so be sure to save energy (especially if you've got younger kids along), for the return trip.  From the Lodge, head out to the terrace, and go left.  There are a few options, most of which lead to the same place.   There are, of course, great views as you start out, some lovely treed parts of the trail, and also sparse, exposed areas.  The overlook itself is stunning.

Heading out. Mt. Jefferson in the distance.

Zigzag Canyon

Then it was back to our accomodations for lunch and pooltime!  Dinner that night as with our previous night, was in.  There was pie!  The Huckleberry Inn had fabulous apple and huckleberry pie.

Next day, some in our party went back up to Timberline Lodge to ride the magic mile chairlift up to 7000 ft. The ride is quite scenic, with a fee of $54 for a family of four.   Others headed down to hike the Salmon River  out of Welches.  The Old Salmon River Trail is also a nice one, and probably better if you have small kids along.

We splurged our last night, and had dinner in the Cascade Dining Room at Timberline Lodge.  We were pleasantly surprised with a superb meal.  Sometimes, destination resorts have cache, and a beautiful room, but the food can be a bit blah. Not the case at Timberline!  Our party of six all enjoyed the meal; salmon, pasta, rib eye, flat iron steak and mussels.  Plus salads, bread and a succulent lemon creme brulee.  We were interested to learn that the dining room has their own beef program; owning the land, cattle and process.  Those who had steak said it was fabulous.  The service was great, attentive, but not too. The food was delicious, and the ambiance can't be beat.  If you can, treat yourself.

We took the long way home, via Highway 35 and a stop at  Idiot's Grace, Memaloose Winery and Tasting Room  in Mosier.  It had been several years since I've come down Highway 35.  The Hood River valley is lovely.  We were a bit early for fruit picking , aside from cherries.  Idiot's Grace Winery is a small, organic winery.  Their basis of operations used to be across  the river in Lyle, until a few years ago.

I'm not a wine drinker, so can't comment on that.  We were, though, at a private event there, and our wine enthusiast compatriots were impressed.  The vintner gave a variety of interesting talks, and a tour of the spread.

All in all, a fun, easy few days, rather close to home.  The Pacific Northwest is so lovely in summer, it's nice to stick around.  Do you have a favorite easy get away to share?

Weird Home Tour

We did the Weird Home Tour last weekend.  The tour originated in Austin, TX, and has expanded to other cities.    This tour benefited Central City Concern, who provided volunteers to staff the event.

This was the first weird home tour in the Portland area.  Some homes are on the tour by virtue of their unique architecture or form; think the airplane, shipping containers, domes etc.  Others are there based on the unique decorating style.  As a real estate broker, and the least creative person you'll ever meet (I can suck the creativity out of things), I'm drawn to the unique architecture.  Oh, I enjoy seeing weird decor, and there was plenty of that.

The real draw for us was the airplane house.  OPB did a story on it a few years ago, you can hear that story here.  The house is located in the woods, on the south end of Hillsboro.  We set out there first.  It was a lovely morning for a drive, and we really enjoyed getting outside the urban growth boundary on that side of town.  While there was decent signage, there wasn't clear information about parking, so there was a bit of a cluster getting parked on the narrow dirt road among the trees.

Those foundation cribs are doing some work

Doesn't your house have a cockpit?

Open the pod bay doors Hal.

The interior of the plane is primarily hollowed out. The overhead luggage bins have been removed, and a lucite/clear plastic floor put in.  Its cool to see the inner parts of the plane. In places, the "wall covering" on the inside walls has been removed.  Its pretty much a long, one room dwelling, with a somewhat makeshift shower. and the planes small bathroom is indeed, the bathroom.  The dwelling is hooked up to a septic/cesspool system, has running water and electricity.

The second house we went to was named Nautical Moderne, which was a cool, ranch with basement.  Predating mid-century modern, it for shadowed some of that styling, while being anchored a bit in an older style.  The homeowners has fabulous decor that really rounded out the feeling.  It had a great retro kitchen, with what must have been a first generation dishwasher.

Super duper streamlined

And this original banquette

There is a fun gallery of all the houses here

The last house we went to was "Serendipity"; billed as an accessible house.  Which it was, kind of.  It was very much a work in progress.  There were some interesting design features, providing accessibility, but I'd guess the house was a bit rough for most.

There were six houses in all.  We didn't make it to all of them.

For the first year, I thought it a fun tour.  The homeowners were all present, and quite gracious in opening their homes and so willing to talk about their passions and their projects.   I'll look forward to next year's tour.  I'd love to see more "weird" architecture.  I know the Portland area has plenty!  Do you have a wierd home, or know someone who does?  Sign up for next year!

Solar Update

We upgraded our solar "system" in March 2018, to 10.05 KVA system; 30 panels.

Here's the layout of our system. The set to the right is on the east side of the roof, the center set on south (the original solar was only on the south face), and that one little panel is on the west (added only because Don wanted the system to be 10 KVA or more).  

KVA is the non power measure of the voltage multiplied by the amperes.  KVA is not a measure of true power it is a measure of the level of apparent power.

A kilowatt hour (kWh) is a measure of energy. So a 1,000 watt drill needs 1,000 watts (1 kW) of power to make it work, and uses 1 kWh of energy in an hour. That's why, if you leave a TV or computer on standby, it is still using power and creating a kWh cost on your energy bill.

A MWh is 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh). An MWh is the amount of electricity generated by a onemegawatt (MW) electric generator operating or producing electricity for one hour. On an electric bill, electricity usage is commonly reported in kilowatt-hours.

Since installing our upgraded system in late March, we have generated 6.61 MWh.  That's the equivalent of 257.71 trees planted or 10,231.85 pounds of CO2 emissions saved (or prevented from being created).

Our electric usage from May 20 - June 19, 2018 was 575 kWh.  From 5/18/18 - 6/21/18 (my tracking is easiest looked at by week or month),  our system generated 1276.43 kWh.  So, we generated more than twice our usage.    This ratio has pretty much held true since the system was turned on in late March 2018.

Clearly, winter, with more cloudy days and shorter daylight hours, will have our usage going up, and our generation decreasing.

Our plan, with PGE, provides for them to buy power back from us at the same rate at which we pay them.  Overage from high solar production is banked, to cover those winter months.  But any overage at the end of our contract year (end of March), transfers to those enrolled in low income assistance programs.

The fantasy, you know, in my energy nerd of a household, is, if we are really generating a large surplus, as our natural gas appliances age and fail, we'd replace them with electric versions.  Currently, (hah, see what I did there?) we have a gas hot water heater, dryer, stove and fireplace.    The electric versions of the hotwater heater and dryer  less expensive to buy, and could potentially be powered at no charge.  The gas fireplace and gas stove will most likely remain powered by gas, in any case.

And yes, our electric usage is high.  I'm driving an electric car these days, and charging at home.  Your monthly usage should be lower.

Studies continue to be done, looking at the value of solar electricity in a real estate transaction.  Here's a link to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study, Selling into the sun.   There is lots of depth to the study, but here are a few nuggets.  In general, across states, a premium of $15,000 is attached to an average 3.6kw system.  The larger the system, the lower the per panel or kw premium.  And the, there is the idea of "green cachet".  This indicates, potentially, that there is a fixed component of PV home premiums that occurs regardless of system size. This might indicate that a green cachet exists for PV homes in our sample. In other words, buyers might be willing to pay something for having any size of PV system on their homes and then some increment more depending on the size of the system.  If you are selling a home with solar, be sure the lender and appraiser know about this study. Until recently, we did not have a solid study showing the values of solar, and many appraisers work under old, outdated information.

If you're considering putting solar on your house, we really liked working with Imagine Energy

And, as always, I'm glad to talk about solar and energy efficiency, especially in relation to real estate!  leslievjones@gmail.com  503-312-8038.

Getting a handle on this varied market

Oh man.  This market is so inconsistent, its hard to find any over arching trends.  I'll try.

The market is definitely slowing.  The Portland market often slows in the summer.  Its a beautiful time in the Pacific Northwest, and folks are out playing.  We've also become a vacation destination, so we  see lots of out of town folks falling in love with our city.  Do they all want to buy houses right  now?  I don't think so.  We'll see them back on subsequent long weekends.

We are seeing LOTS of price reductions, and some rather steep and rather quick.  If it doesn't sell now, it may not sell until the September/October market flurry we usually see in advance of the holidays.  For builders, flippers and move-up sellers, that fall flurry may be too far away, hence, the price reductions.

So what do I mean by slowing?   May 2018 saw 6.3% more new listings hit the market, than May 2017.  Closed sales fell 3.2% from May 2017, pending sales decreased 6.8% from May 2017, and the median price through May 2018 has risen 8.0% as compared to 10.7% through May of 2017. 

But, that puts our year to date,  median sale price at $399,500 in 2018, as compared to $370,000 in 2017.   So, still going up, but at a slower rate.   And those price reductions?  Some of them aren't due to "dropping values", so much as aspirational pricing by sellers.

 I think Realtors are reluctant to talk about a slowing market (as with many financial markets, does talking about it change it?).  Sellers are often basing their pricing expectations on what they've heard about the market from friends and neighbors.  This anecdotal evidence can be a few months behind reality.  The expectations of every house generating multiple offers, bidding wars and sales prices well above the list price are unrealistic.  Are we still seeing some multiple offers?  Yes.  Are some houses still selling well over list price?  yes.

Here are the frustrating parts:
1) We, the professionals, are having a hard time predicting what houses will sell quickly and which won't. 
2) With such a varied market, buyers might be able to look at houses priced above their top price range, as some sellers are accepting offers below their list price. 
3) Some houses are still going well over list price, so buyers should be shopping below their top price.
4) Though the stats look like a slowing market, May 2018 market time was 37 days, compared to 39 in 2017.

Here are a few things we do know:
1) Interest rates are increasing, and will continue to do so.
2) Portland is still seeing significant in migration from other states.
3) With a slowing market, it can be possible to get an offer accepted, subject to the buyer selling their current home.  These "contingent" offers have long been a favorite approach for move up buyers.
4) In a slower market, buyers can make better buying decisions.  Now, buyers might be able to think about making an offer on a house for as long as they can think about that new pair of shoes, or where to eat dinner this weekend.
5) Houses that are priced too high, and stay on the market, will eventually sell for less than than had they been priced properly at the beginning.  Sellers who say they'll "wait to get the price they want" are misinformed.  Who ever paid more for a house because its been on the market so long?

There you have it.  To buyers, you may have a bit more buying power than you did previously.  This means, you might be the only offer on a house, and might have the luxury of negotiating with the seller, or not.  Sellers, be careful about over pricing.  We have seen very good appreciation in Portland in recent years. Don't get greedy.

If you have questions about your particular property or situation, get in touch.  I'll be glad to help.  and as always, let me know if there are questions I might answer.  Here's the link to the most recent RMLS stats.

leslievjones@gmail.com   503-312-8038

Interim market update - are we in a buyers' market?

There was a one liner in a KGW piece a few nights ago, where Zillow said the Portland market , "is a buyers market right now".  That caught my attention.  Zillow's article about the national market also points to slowing.

The RMLS report for April can show some hints of this.  For the first four months of the year, our inventory was equal to, or higher than the inventory for the same months in 2016 and 2017.

The market time for listings that sold in that same time period was also equal to, or longer than 2016 and 2017.

And pending sales are down 2.6% from April 2017.

Zillow's report for Portland shows our annual home value change increased 6.2% as compared to a 9.1% increase in national values.

Anecdotally, we're still seeing multiple offers on certain properties.  We're also seeing more and more houses on the market and price reductions in a variety of areas.

What does this mean for you?

If you've been in the market to buy, while prices are still going up. the pressure is easing.  While the list price used to be a starting point, with prices going up from there, it now can be possible to buy a house at or below the list price.  Some buyers stay out of the market, while they save money to buy.  In the past few years, prices have been rising quicker than most people can save.  We may be entering a time when you can actually save faster than the market increases.

If you are thinking of selling, you might want to get your property on the market sooner than later.  While we're seeing some slowing now, we often see a bit of a lull in the summer months, especially July and August.

Let me know if you have questions about your specific situation.  I'm always glad to talk.

Leslie Jones  503-312-8038   leslievjones@gmail.com

New heights of energy nerdism

My husband told me the other day, he tries to limit the number of times he opens the refrigerator, in an effort to preserve the cold air.  There is a bit of context...a glimpse into my world.

I'm driving an electric car these days, and we REALLY wanted it to be truly powered by the sun.  In 2010, we installed a system with 10 solar panels, that generated about 80% of our electricity.  The electric load in our house, is plugs, lights, fridge, washer and small appliances (toaster, coffee pot) and the electricity needed to power the electronic parts of the stove and dryer.  And now, the car charger.

ImagineEnergy, who did our original system, helped with the upgrade.  We removed the old panels and inverter (and sold them to a friend), and had 30 new panels (more efficient) installed.  The panel technology has improved so much, merely upgrading the 10 existing panels would have given us a nice bump.  The load of the electric car can be hefty and the panel upgrade alone wouldn't generated enough to power the house and the car.

With the 30 panels and new inverter, we also get a fancy web interface through which to monitor our system.  The monitoring system just got turned on in late March, so we don't have a bunch of data yet, and we've not even gone a full billing cycle since installing the new panels.  But we are excited and optimistic!

The monitoring system is by Solar Edge.  I can see, today, we have generated 33.71 kWh, so far. I can see today's weather, along with the forecast. Switching to a different screen, I can see a physical layout of the panels, and which panels have produced how much power today, or this week, or month, or year. And once we have more data, there's a plethora of reports to be run. 

Portland's Home Energy Score requirement is driving more awareness of energy efficiency into the market.  Portland was one of a handful of cities benefiting from an in depth study of the value of solar power in certain markets.  In that 2015 study, solar panels were seen to add a premium of 1.97% - 3.25% (median and mean) to the price of a house.  The sales in that study were from 2012 and 2013.  I'd guess that premium, as a percentage of price, has increased since then.

If you have questions about navigating solar systems (ha ha), I'd be glad to chat.  You can reach me at 503-312-8038 or leslievjones@gmail.com

A look at Q1 2018 in Portland real estate

We receive monthly market statistics from the multiple listing service.  Looking at those numbers, a month a time, doesn't necessarily give the full picture.  Now that we've got three months of statistics, let's take a look.

In my annual report, I predicted an increase in the median price of around 8%.  Right now, looking at the percentage change of the 12 month sale price with the previous 12 months, the median price has increased 8.8% from $353,800 to $385,000 (this is metro-area wide).  I expect to see this come down a bit as the year progresses.

We are seeing the number of new listings creep up a bit.  Our inventory in months, calculated by dividing the active residential listings at the end of the month by the number of closed sales that month, has been (averaged for Q!) 1.9.  In 2016 and 2017, that three month average was 1.63.

On a similar trend, year to date listings are 3.8% higher than the same period in 2017, and closed sales are down 3.8%.  And market time, measured in days has increased 3.1% from 59 to 61 days.  Keep in mind, real estate always has a bit of a slow start in January, as many buyers and sellers are not focused on real estate through the holidays. 

While the general Portland market is slowing a tad, and prices are not increasing as quickly as in recent years, some neighborhoods remain hot.  Properties are still receiving multiple offers, and selling for well above asking price.  Anecdotally, it seems well priced properties are drawing lots of attention (as it should be), along with properties that have been well taken care of and prepped for sale.  Sellers wanting top dollar are best to put a lot of effort into preparing their property for sale, AND price properly.  An overpriced property, sitting for weeks or months will not bring top dollar.

From here, I expect we'll continue to see more properties on the market, a decline in the rate of price increase and a bit saner market for all.  Buyers, there are lots of good properties on the market in most neighborhoods and price points.  While you aren't in the driver's seat, you may be less disadvantaged than you've been in recent months. Sellers, you still have a desirable product, but you'll need to pay attention to condition and price. 

RMLS report

Get in touch if you have questions or would like additional information.  Leslie Jones leslievjones@gmail.com 503-312-8038.