Market Update

RMLS, our regional multiple listings service, released their statistics for June on Friday afternoon.  The numbers are interesting. 

A bit of history.  Remember that last year, the homebuyer tax credit was sunsetting and we were in the midst of closing all the transactions that had been put together under that incentive.  So for months now, the closed sales for this year have been diminished by the numbers of last year.  We are almost able to look back and compare normal market to normal market, not incentivized market to normal market.

So, as expected, closed sales were down when compared to the closed sales in June of 2010.  But...pending sales jumped by almost 24% from June 2010 to June 2011.  Wow.  And in a closer look, closed sales increased 12.4% from May 2011 to June 2011. 

Another way we look at the market is by inventory; how many properties are on the market.  At our current rate of sales, how many months would it take to sell all those properties?  It is thought that six months of inventory or less signifies a seller's market, and more than six months is a buyer's market.  June's statistics show six months of inventory, our lowest point since July 2007.  Does this mean we are in a seller's market?  Not quite, though we are seeing some multiple offers and sales prices over list prices in well priced, well cared for and staged properties in the close in neighborhoods.  I am also reminded that a major reason inventory is so low is that we, Realtors, are telling you, homeowners, that this is not the time to sell.  We could be wrong.  And, many homeowners, who bought in the last six or so years, with 100% financing, don't have enough equity to sell and buy up.  Until the housing market tumbled, homeowners sold and bought every seven years. 

Prices do continue to decline.  So the pressure we might see from low inventory is not reflected in the price increases one might expect from normal, supply and demand economics.  The average year to date sales price at the end of June 2011 for the Portland metro area was $260,000, compared to $280,000 in June of 2010.  The median year to date sale price at the end of June was $219,100 compared to $239,900 at the end of June 2010.  These numbers show decreases of 7.8% on the average sale price and 8.7% on the median sale price.

We are nearing the tine of year when we see seasonal slowing in the market as the "before school starts" transactions wane, and folks go on vacation.  There is though always ( but for fall 2001, after 9/11) a bump in the market from the "before the holidays and the end of the tax tear" transactions.  In 2010, the fourth quarter was my busiest.  You never can tell.

See the full Portland area report from RMLS.